El Niño forecast 2026: What NOAA's latest update means for summer
Experts give El Niño conditions a 62 percent chance of emerging later this year.
www.newsweek.comHere’s the latest on El Niño predictions for 2026–2027, based on the most recent official updates.
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NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks: El Niño is expected to emerge likely between June and August 2026, with a 62% probability of continuing into at least the end of 2026. There is still uncertainty about the final strength, with a non-negligible chance it could be moderate to strong later in the year. In the spring, forecast confidence is lower due to the spring predictability barrier, but outlooks increasingly favor El Niño as we move into summer. Source: CPC updates and commentary from NOAA.[1][3]
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World Meteorological Organization (WMO): The WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates a strong signal for El Niño returning in 2026, with conditions favoring a notable warming of the Pacific and a shift in global rainfall and temperature patterns. Model consensus has grown, though early-year uncertainties persist because of the spring predictability barrier. Confidence improves after April and guidance points toward a mid-2026 onset and potential intensification into 2027. Source: WMO statements and press coverage.[2][4][8]
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Regional and global impact expectations: If El Niño develops as forecast, there are expectations of warmer global average temperatures and altered rainfall patterns—potential for wetter conditions in parts of North and South America and drier conditions in some regions like parts of Southeast Asia and Australia, along with broader climate extremes. Forecast discussions emphasize regional variability and potential for a “strong” event later in 2026 depending on how the ocean-atmosphere system evolves. Sources: WMO, News outlets citing CPC, and research briefings.[4][5][10][2]
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What to watch going forward: Key updates will come from CPC and IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) as the spring predictability barrier passes. Expect refinements to the likely onset window (May–July 2026), the anticipated strength, and the likely duration into 2027 as models converge with new data sources (satellites, buoys, and improved ocean heat content measurements). Sources: CPC predictions, IRI outlooks, and related articles.[3][10][1]
Illustration: If you’d like, I can generate a concise visual timeline showing the predicted onset window (May–July 2026) and the probability of El Niño persisting through each subsequent quarter, using the latest CPC/IRI probabilities.
Would you like me to pull the most recent CPC/IRI probability figures and produce a simple chart? I can also tailor the summary to your region (Czech Republic, Europe, or globally) and potential implications for weather, agriculture, or energy planning. Citations: CPC/NOAA outlooks, WMO updates, and subsequent analyses.[8][10][2][3][4]